[
 {"local_id": "C1", "type": "empirical", "core": true,
  "statement": "Among singleton first births at 37-44 weeks in US natality files for 2016-2024, labor induction rises by 1.19 percentage points at maternal age 35 (honest 95% CI 0.70 to 1.68, bias bound 0.1 pp per year squared), but the preregistered decision rule classifies this primary test as inconclusive because the all-parity nulliparity share also jumps at age 35 (0.40 pp, Holm-adjusted p = 0.023).",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R1.estimate_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R1.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R1.ci_high_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R1.nulliparity_share_jump_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R1.verdict", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py"}],
  "depends_on": [], "falsified_if": "A re-run of code/analysis.py on data/ gives an honest CI for the age-35 induction jump that includes 0, or a falsification test that passes after Holm adjustment.", "confidence": 0.85},
 {"local_id": "C2", "type": "empirical", "core": true,
  "statement": "In the same population, labor induction rises by 2.86 percentage points at maternal age 40 (honest 95% CI 2.05 to 3.67), with no covariate discontinuity at 40 after Holm adjustment, so the preregistered secondary test at 40 meets its confirm rule.",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R2.estimate_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.ci_high_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.verdict", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py"}],
  "depends_on": [], "falsified_if": "A re-run gives an honest CI for the age-40 induction jump that includes 0.", "confidence": 0.85},
 {"local_id": "C3", "type": "empirical", "core": false,
  "statement": "Delivery at 39 weeks rises by 1.00 percentage points at maternal age 35 (honest 95% CI 0.52 to 1.48) and by 3.64 percentage points at age 40 (honest 95% CI 2.85 to 4.44) among singleton first births at 37-44 weeks.",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R3.age35.delivery_39w.estimate_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R3.age35.delivery_39w.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R3.age40.delivery_39w.estimate_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R3.age40.delivery_39w.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01}],
  "depends_on": [], "confidence": 0.8},
 {"local_id": "C4", "type": "negative_result", "core": true,
  "statement": "Cesarean delivery, NICU admission, 5-minute Apgar below 7, and a maternal morbidity composite show no discontinuity at maternal age 35 (all honest 95% CIs within -0.52 to +0.76 percentage points) or at age 40 (all within -0.78 to +1.40 percentage points) among singleton first births at 37-44 weeks.",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R3.age35.cesarean.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R3.age35.cesarean.ci_high_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R3.age35.nicu.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R3.age40.cesarean.ci_high_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R3.age40.nicu.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01}],
  "depends_on": [], "falsified_if": "A re-run gives an honest CI excluding 0 for any of the four outcomes at either cutoff.", "confidence": 0.8},
 {"local_id": "C5", "type": "negative_result", "core": false,
  "statement": "Stillbirth at 37-44 weeks among singleton first pregnancies (fetal-death and natality files 2018-2024) shows no discontinuity at maternal age 35 (0.00 percentage points, honest 95% CI -0.22 to 0.23) or 40 (-0.03, honest 95% CI -0.29 to 0.24), intervals too wide to rule out effects of the size of the baseline rate.",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R4.age35.stillbirth_nulliparous.estimate_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R4.age35.stillbirth_nulliparous.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R4.age40.stillbirth_nulliparous.ci_low_pp", "produced_by": "code/analysis.py", "tolerance": 0.01}],
  "depends_on": [], "confidence": 0.7}
]