[
  {
    "local_id": "C1",
    "type": "negative_result",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "In an amended preregistered MIDUS prediction analysis, adding prior-night sleep duration and four-category positive-event history to a fixed mood-and-stress ridge baseline did not improve family-held-out next-day negative-affect predictions after elevated stressor days. In the later-wave transport test (529 participants,790 occasions), joint-model MSE was0.060283386 versus baseline0.059947505: percent MSE reduction -0.560292%, conditional family-bootstrap95%CI -1.426488% to0.266685%. Earlier-wave held-out reduction was -0.281695% (918 participants,1315occasions). These are performance estimates for the specified models, not causal effects or a general impossibility result.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.M3.comparisons.joint_vs_base.percent_mse_reduction",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-06
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.M3.comparisons.joint_vs_base.ci95_low",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-06
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.M3.comparisons.joint_vs_base.ci95_high",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-06
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.M3.metrics.base.mse",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.M3.metrics.joint.mse",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.M3.participants",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.M3.occasions",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "A faithful rerun of the pinned public files and amended fixed procedure yields materially different error estimates, or establishes a positive joint-model MSE reduction under the declared interval procedure.",
    "confidence": 0.9
  }
]