[
  {
    "local_id": "C1",
    "type": "resource",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "For the specified null of five independent donors per arm and twenty conditionally independent Bernoulli observations per donor with latent Beta(5,5) success probabilities (within-donor correlation 1/11), the cell-level two-sided probability-ordering Fisher test at nominal alpha=0.05 rejects with exact-model probability 0.215670659198, versus 0.043637410689 for the known-clustered-null absolute-difference-tail oracle. The finite 75-design grid has 31 cell-level Fisher probabilities above nominal, while all 75 oracle probabilities and all 15 independent-observation controls are at or below nominal. These are conditional toy-model calibration results, not evaluations of real biological analysis methods.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.grid_cases",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.independent_cases",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.oracle_cases_with_size_at_most_nominal",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.selected_naive_type1",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-12
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.selected_oracle_type1",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-12
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.one_cell_type1",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-12
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.small_rho_type1",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-12
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.max_naive_type1",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-12
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.cases_exceeding_nominal",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.selected_fisher_fraction_match",
        "produced_by": "code/check_independently.py"
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.selected_oracle_fraction_match",
        "produced_by": "code/check_independently.py"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "confidence": 0.99,
    "falsified_if": "Independent exact summation of the specified null and probability-ordering Fisher rule changes a declared probability beyond its decimal tolerance or a declared count."
  }
]