[
  {
    "local_id": "C1",
    "type": "negative_result",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "Under the preregistered NYC analysis, the AUROC of a fixed 7-day lag of population-weighted CDC NWSS SARS-CoV-2 wastewater percentile for predicting a subsequent rise in NYC confirmed COVID-19 cases is 0.449326, which does not exceed the contemporaneous lag-0 AUROC of 0.522145 (delta -0.07282), so the locked success rule AUROC_lag7 > AUROC_lag0 fails.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.auroc_lag7",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0.000001
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.auroc_lag0",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0.000001
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.delta_auroc",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0.000001
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.success_lag_beats_contemporaneous",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "R1.success_lag_beats_contemporaneous is true, or R1.auroc_lag7 exceeds R1.auroc_lag0",
    "confidence": 0.9
  }
]