[
  {
    "local_id": "C1",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "Of 40 associations sampled at random from 341 papers that each relate one NHANES variable to one health condition, 14 (35%; exact 95% confidence interval 21% to 52%) replicated in NHANES August 2021 to August 2023, meaning their estimate there has the published sign and a Benjamini-Hochberg-corrected p below 0.05.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated.n",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated.share",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated.ci.0",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated.ci.1",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "Re-running code/run on the bundle's data gives a number replicated other than 14 of 40.",
    "confidence": 0.95
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C2",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "Only 13 of the 40 replication tests had at least 80% power to detect the published effect in the 2021 to 2023 cycle, and 10 of those 13 replicated (77%; exact 95% confidence interval 46% to 95%).",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.informative",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated_informative.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated_informative.share",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated_informative.ci.0",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated_informative.ci.1",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "Re-running code/run gives a number of informative tests other than 13, or other than 10 of them replicated.",
    "confidence": 0.95
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C3",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "On the analysis scale (log odds ratio or regression coefficient), the 2021 to 2023 effects are a median 0.77 times the published ones (distribution-free 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 1.05) over all 40 associations, and 0.91 times (0.32 to 1.16) over the 13 informative ones.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio.median",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio.ci.0",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio.ci.1",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio_informative.median",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio_informative.ci.0",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio_informative.ci.1",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "Re-running code/run gives a median ratio outside 0.763 to 0.767.",
    "confidence": 0.95
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C4",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "Three of the 40 2021 to 2023 estimates differ significantly from the published ones after Benjamini-Hochberg correction: one is smaller than published and two have the opposite sign.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.differs_from_published.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.differs_by_direction.smaller.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.differs_by_direction.larger.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.differs_by_direction.opposite_sign.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "Re-running code/run gives a number of significant differences from the published estimates other than 3.",
    "confidence": 0.95
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C5",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": false,
    "statement": "In 2021 to 2023, 16 of the 40 estimates fall inside the published 95% confidence interval, 16 have the published sign with an unadjusted p below 0.05, and none has the opposite sign with a corrected p below 0.05.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.in_published_ci.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.same_sign_p05.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.reversed.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "confidence": 0.95
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C6",
    "type": "methodological",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "Re-implemented on the cycles each paper analyzed, 39 of the 40 published estimates are reproduced (our estimate inside the published 95% confidence interval), with a median ratio of our estimate to the published one of 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.01); the one not reproduced modeled the absence of its outcome while reporting the odds of its presence.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.reproduced.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.ratio_original.median",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.ratio_original.ci.0",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.ratio_original.ci.1",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row257.original.estimate",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row257.variants.0.estimate",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "confidence": 0.95
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C7",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "In 36 of the 40 papers, reproducing the published estimate showed that the analysis behind it computed something other than the paper says, in a way that bears on that estimate: in how a variable was coded (31 papers), the sample analyzed (15), the numbers reported (11), the use of survey weights or design (8), or the model's covariates (5).",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.departures.affecting_headline.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.departures.by_kind.coding.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.departures.by_kind.sample.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.departures.by_kind.reporting.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.departures.by_kind.weighting.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.reproduction.departures.by_kind.model.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "A reader of a paper finds that a departure recorded for it in its code/associations file is not shown by the paper's own numbers.",
    "confidence": 0.85
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C8",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": false,
    "statement": "None of the 40 associations differs significantly between 2021 to 2023 and our harmonized analysis of the paper's own cycles after Benjamini-Hochberg correction, and the median ratio of the two estimates is 0.82 (distribution-free 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 1.10).",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.heterogeneous.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio_own.median",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio_own.ci.0",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.ratio_own.ci.1",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.002
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "confidence": 0.9
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C9",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": false,
    "statement": "The primary result does not depend on the reproduced subset or the 2021 to 2023 weights: 14 of the 39 reproduced associations replicated, and 14 of 40 replicated with each paper's own survey weight in place of the subsample weights NCHS directs for 2021 to 2023.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated_reproduced.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated_reproduced.n",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.replication.replicated_paper_weight.k",
        "produced_by": "code/run"
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [
      "C1"
    ],
    "confidence": 0.95
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C10",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": false,
    "statement": "In 2021 to 2023, adults who sleep 5 hours or less on workdays have serum albumin 0.27 g/L lower (95% confidence interval -0.57 to 0.04) than those who sleep more than 7 and up to 8 hours, against a published 1.00 g/L (0.74 to 1.26), a significant difference (corrected p 0.0039); on the paper's own cycles, whose albumin analyzers differ, adding a cycle term to its model gives 0.64 g/L.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R2.row284.replication.estimate",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row284.replication.low",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row284.replication.high",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row284.difference_q",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row284.variants.9.estimate",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.001
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "confidence": 0.9
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C11",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": false,
    "statement": "In 2021 to 2023, the odds ratio of diabetes per 100 units of the systemic immune-inflammation index is 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.00), against a published 1.04 (1.02 to 1.06), a significant difference of opposite sign (corrected p 0.0039).",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R2.row303.replication.estimate",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row303.replication.low",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row303.replication.high",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row303.difference_q",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "confidence": 0.9
  },
  {
    "local_id": "C12",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": false,
    "statement": "In 2021 to 2023, the odds ratio of depression per unit of the triglyceride-glucose index is 0.69 (95% confidence interval 0.41 to 1.16), against a published 1.54 (1.21 to 1.95), a significant difference of opposite sign (corrected p 0.041).",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R2.row311.replication.estimate",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row311.replication.low",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.0001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row311.replication.high",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.001
      },
      {
        "result": "R2.row311.difference_q",
        "produced_by": "code/run",
        "tolerance": 0.001
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "confidence": 0.9
  }
]