[
  {
    "local_id": "C1",
    "type": "methodological",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "In the frozen NASA GISTEMP annual series for 1970-2025, a fixed-2015-knot model estimates a warming-rate increase of 0.232 degrees Celsius per decade with a 95% HAC interval of 0.106 to 0.358, while the registered breakpoint-search p-value is 0.0271 through 2025, 0.4078 through 2022, and 0.1726 through 2025 when the AR(1) lag coefficient is fixed at 0.6.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.primary.delta_c_per_decade",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.primary.ci95_low_c_per_decade",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.primary.ci95_high_c_per_decade",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.primary.p_two_sided_normal",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.bootstrap.2025.AR1.p_selection_adjusted",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.bootstrap.2024.AR1.p_selection_adjusted",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.bootstrap.2022.AR1.p_selection_adjusted",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.rho_sensitivity.rho_0p2.p_selection_adjusted",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.rho_sensitivity.rho_0p4.p_selection_adjusted",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.rho_sensitivity.rho_0p6.p_selection_adjusted",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.conditional_power.delta_0p1.conditional_power",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.conditional_power.delta_0p2.conditional_power",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.conditional_power.delta_0p3.conditional_power",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "The supplied data and specified offline algorithms fail to reproduce these estimates, intervals and simulation frequencies within the declared tolerance.",
    "confidence": 0.99
  }
]