[
 {
  "local_id": "C1",
  "type": "empirical",
  "core": true,
  "statement": "In 34 comparisons from 32 randomized trials of recurring unconditional cash in high-income countries (16,834 people analysed), mental health about 12 months into payments was better in the cash arms by a pooled standardized mean difference of 0.090 (95% CI 0.041 to 0.139; Holm-corrected p = 0.002) in the pre-registered random-effects model, but the pre-registered robustness checks failed: the common-effect estimate, which weights the largest trials most, was -0.002 (-0.023 to 0.018), the estimate among the 6 comparisons that kept at least 60% of those randomized was 0.043 (-0.077 to 0.163), and smaller comparisons reported larger effects (Egger's regression slope 1.54, 95% CI 0.75 to 2.33; p < 0.001).",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R1.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R1.trials", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "S.people.p1", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R"},
   {"result": "R1.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.p_holm_text", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R1.common_effect.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.common_effect.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.common_effect.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.retention.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R1.retention.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.retention.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.retention.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R1.egger.slope", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.005},
   {"result": "R1.egger.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.005},
   {"result": "R1.egger.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.005},
   {"result": "R1.egger.p", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.0005},
   {"result": "R1.robust", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"}
  ],
  "depends_on": [],
  "falsified_if": "A re-run on the bundle's data gives a random-effects 95% CI that includes 0 or a common-effect estimate whose 95% CI excludes 0; or a re-extraction of the trials' reports moves the random-effects estimate by more than 0.03.",
  "confidence": 0.8
 },
 {
  "local_id": "C2",
  "type": "negative_result",
  "core": true,
  "statement": "In 14 comparisons from 13 randomized trials of recurring unconditional cash (9,623 people surveyed, and 175,222 in Finland's employment registers), the share of people employed about 12 months into payments did not detectably change: +0.60 percentage points (95% CI -2.53 to 3.73; Holm-corrected p = 1.000), an interval that rules out a reduction larger than 2.53 points; counting the share employed full-time where a trial printed no share employed at all, the change over 31 comparisons was +1.13 points (-1.14 to 3.40).",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R2.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R2.trials", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "S.people.p2_surveys", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R"},
   {"result": "S.people.p2_registers", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R"},
   {"result": "R2.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.p_holm_text", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R2.largest_reduction_allowed_pp", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.with_full_time.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R2.with_full_time.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.with_full_time.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.01},
   {"result": "R2.with_full_time.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.01}
  ],
  "depends_on": [],
  "falsified_if": "A re-run on the bundle's data gives a 95% CI for the pooled change in employment that lies wholly below 0, or whose lower limit is below -2.53 by more than 0.5 points.",
  "confidence": 0.75
 },
 {
  "local_id": "C3",
  "type": "negative_result",
  "core": true,
  "statement": "In 19 comparisons of recurring unconditional cash with mental-health estimates at two waves during payments a mean of 11.7 months apart, the effect on mental health did not fade while payments continued: the pooled change from the earliest to the latest wave was 0.000 standard deviations (95% CI -0.049 to 0.048; Holm-corrected p = 1.000), the effects at the two waves being 0.048 and 0.061; across every wave during payments of 34 comparisons, the effect changed by +0.015 standard deviations per year (-0.034 to 0.064).",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R3.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R3.mean_gap_months", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.1},
   {"result": "R3.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R3.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R3.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R3.p_holm_text", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R3.early.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R3.late.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R4.comparisons", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R4.slope_per_year", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R4.slope_lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R4.slope_upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001}
  ],
  "depends_on": ["C1"],
  "falsified_if": "A re-run on the bundle's data gives a pooled change whose 95% CI lies wholly below 0.",
  "confidence": 0.7
 },
 {
  "local_id": "C4",
  "type": "empirical",
  "core": false,
  "statement": "In exploratory analyses added after registration, the larger mental-health benefits came from small comparisons and from shares above a cut-off: the 7 comparisons with at least 500 people analysed pooled to 0.041 standard deviations (95% CI -0.079 to 0.161) against 0.107 (0.052 to 0.163) for the other 27, and estimates from scale scores pooled to 0.051 (0.007 to 0.096) against 0.233 (0.084 to 0.381) for shares above a cut-off converted to standard deviations (difference 0.147, 0.037 to 0.258).",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "S.at_least_500.k", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R"},
   {"result": "S.at_least_500.estimate", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.at_least_500.lower", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.at_least_500.upper", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.under_500.k", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R"},
   {"result": "S.under_500.estimate", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.under_500.lower", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.under_500.upper", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.scores.estimate", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.scores.lower", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.scores.upper", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.shares.estimate", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.shares.lower", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.shares.upper", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.share_coefficient.coefficient", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.share_coefficient.lower", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "S.share_coefficient.upper", "produced_by": "code/summarize.R", "tolerance": 0.001}
  ],
  "depends_on": ["C1"],
  "falsified_if": "A re-run gives a 95% CI for the share coefficient that includes 0.",
  "confidence": 0.6
 },
 {
  "local_id": "C5",
  "type": "negative_result",
  "core": false,
  "statement": "One-time lump sums of unconditional cash, in 4 randomized comparisons with 19,907 people analysed, had no detectable effect on mental health at their latest follow-up within 12 months (standardized mean difference 0.009, 95% CI -0.025 to 0.043).",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R6.mental_health.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R6.mental_health.participants", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R6.mental_health.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R6.mental_health.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R6.mental_health.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001}
  ],
  "depends_on": [],
  "falsified_if": "A re-run gives a 95% CI wholly above 0.",
  "confidence": 0.6
 },
 {
  "local_id": "C6",
  "type": "negative_result",
  "core": false,
  "statement": "In the first wave after recurring payments ended (19 comparisons), mental health was not detectably better in the cash arms (standardized mean difference 0.046, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.117), and perceived stress during payments was not detectably lower (0.048, -0.029 to 0.126; 21 comparisons).",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R5.after_payments.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R5.after_payments.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R5.after_payments.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R5.after_payments.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R5.stress.estimate", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R5.stress.lower", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R5.stress.upper", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R", "tolerance": 0.001},
   {"result": "R5.stress.k", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"}
  ],
  "depends_on": [],
  "falsified_if": "A re-run gives a 95% CI for the effect after payments wholly above 0.",
  "confidence": 0.55
 },
 {
  "local_id": "C7",
  "type": "empirical",
  "core": false,
  "statement": "Of the 32 eligible registered trials of unconditional cash whose primary completion or end date was at least 12 months before 2026-10-17, 8 had reported no results this review could find, among them the Chicago Resilient Communities Pilot (AEARCTR-0009656), registered with 11,915 participants.",
  "evidence": [
   {"result": "R9.due", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R9.unreported", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"},
   {"result": "R9.unreported_ids", "produced_by": "code/analyze.R"}
  ],
  "depends_on": [],
  "falsified_if": "A results report of any of the 8 that predates the search is found.",
  "confidence": 0.8
 }
]