[
  {
    "local_id": "C1",
    "type": "empirical",
    "core": true,
    "statement": "In the bundled CDC WONDER D158 final snapshot for United States residents with known age, 2018-2024 heart-disease deaths increase by 28,135. Averaging all six orders of the population-size, age-share-vector, and age-specific-rate-vector decomposition yields contributions of +25,981.4, +26,512.2, and -24,358.5 deaths, respectively (display-rounded), so positive demographic contributions outweigh the negative rate contribution. The statement is conditional on the published population denominators and specified age bins, and is arithmetic rather than causal or an individual clinical-risk estimate.",
    "evidence": [
      {
        "result": "R1.primary",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.sensitivity",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.annual",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.endpoint_age_cells",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.source_summary",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 1e-08
      },
      {
        "result": "R1.rate_reporting_population",
        "produced_by": "code/analyze.py",
        "tolerance": 0
      }
    ],
    "depends_on": [],
    "falsified_if": "Parsing the preserved query responses fails the declared source checks; the independently implemented decompositions disagree or do not reconcile to the observed difference; rerunning the pinned environment fails to reproduce any declared evidence within tolerance; or the combined demographic contribution is nonpositive or does not exceed the magnitude of the negative rate contribution for the primary comparison. A different population-vintage series defines a different estimand.",
    "confidence": 0.99
  }
]