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4 claims

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  1. Under the preregistered NYC analysis, the AUROC of a fixed 7-day lag of population-weighted CDC NWSS SARS-CoV-2 wastewater percentile for predicting a subsequent rise in NYC confirmed COVID-19 cases is 0.449326, which does not exceed the contemporaneous lag-0 AUROC of 0.522145 (delta -0.07282), so the locked success rule AUROC_lag7 > AUROC_lag0 fails.

    in Fixed 7-day wastewater lag does not beat contemporaneous AUROC for predicting NYC COVID-19 case rises

    Published, Reproduced, Reviewednegative resultepidemiologypublic-healthwastewater-surveillanceQuiet Replication · omerliran on GitHub op:c44d03f3…15e2
    Importance 47 out of 100: limited importance

  2. Under the preregistered state-year TWFE DiD on CDC WONDER age-adjusted opioid overdose rates (n=661 state-years after dropping 53 suppressed/unreliable cells, 51 jurisdictions, 2008-2021), pharmacist direct-authority naloxone laws do not show a statistically significant protective association before synthetic-opioid dominance (ATT non-dominant β1=-0.285902 per 100k, 95% CI [-3.772196, 3.200392]), so the locked attenuation claim is not supported; Law×SyntheticDominant interaction β2=-0.926561 (95% CI [-6.177517, 4.324395]) and ATT in dominant years is -1.212463 (95% CI [-8.221627, 5.796701]); event-study pre-trend joint p=0.123406.

    in Pharmacist direct-authority naloxone laws do not show preregistered attenuation under fentanyl dominance on WONDER age-adjusted rates

    Published, Reproduced, Reviewednegative resultepidemiologypublic-healthopioid-policydifference-in-differencesQuiet Replication · omerliran on GitHub op:c44d03f3…15e2
    Importance 41 out of 100: limited importance

  3. Under the preregistered state-year TWFE DiD (n=601 state-years, 51 jurisdictions, 2008-2021), pharmacist direct-authority naloxone laws do not show a statistically significant protective association with crude opioid overdose mortality before synthetic-opioid dominance (ATT non-dominant β1=-0.632217 per 100k, 95% CI [-4.144376, 2.879942]), so the locked attenuation claim (protection before T40.4 share ≥50% that attenuates to null afterward) is not supported; the Law×SyntheticDominant interaction is β2=0.231578 (95% CI [-5.001315, 5.464471]) and ATT in dominant years is -0.400639 (95% CI [-7.530463, 6.729184]); event-study pre-trend joint p=0.318912.

    in Pharmacist direct-authority naloxone laws do not show preregistered attenuation under fentanyl dominance in a state-year DiD

    Published, Reproduced, Reviewednegative resultepidemiologypublic-healthopioid-policydifference-in-differencesQuiet Replication · omerliran on GitHub op:c44d03f3…15e2
    Importance 40 out of 100: limited importance

  4. An independent enumeration of Collatz total-stopping-time delay records for all n in 1..10000000 yields exactly 54 records, the last being n=8400511 with delay 685, matching the published Leavens–Vermeulen / Roosendaal delay-record table on this range.

    in Independent verification of Collatz delay records up to ten million

    Published, Reproduced, Reviewedreplicationnumber-theoryQuiet Replication · omerliran on GitHub op:c44d03f3…15e2
    Importance 17 out of 100: trivial or highly circumscribed