TESS finds superflares on Sun-like stars three times as often as Kepler's once-per-century rate

How often do stars like the Sun release superflares of $10^{34}$ erg or more? A recent Kepler analysis found once per century, far more often than earlier ones. We tested this with TESS: a pre-registered search of the two-minute light curves of stars selected as that analysis selected its Sun-like stars, with flares of known energy injected into every light curve to measure what it finds. It counted superflares where the once-per-century rate predicts : times that rate (interval to ), one per years per star, far above the earlier rates. Every planned subset and sensitivity analysis gives a ratio above one. An exploratory emulation of the Kepler search suggests its correction for missed flares, measured with the profile it injected, understates the rate of flares shaped as assumed here by a factor of between and erg; its published rates don't follow from its own figures, so how much of the gap is Kepler's remains open. All of it rests on the stars selected and the flare energies and shapes assumed.