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title:mandelbrot - SummaryWords in its Summary, the paper’s abstract
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Studies
- Its version 2’s most important claim’s importance 59 out of 100: meaningful importance, under edition 3 of the rubric
Many papers relate one National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) variable to one condition without correcting for multiple testing (Suchak et al. (2025)). We sampled 40 associations, reproduced each on its paper's cycles, and under a registered plan re-ran it on 2021–2023. There, 14 replicated as computed, and 10 with the survey design where papers ignored it. Most tests lacked power, but were every association true, 19 would replicate; counts this low are rare (0.047, or 0.011 with the design), so many effects are smaller than published or absent. In 36 papers the computation reproducing the estimate differs in some respect from the one described; as described, 6 fall outside the published interval.
- Published: Of 40 associations sampled at random from those eligible among 341 papers that each relate one NHANES variable to one health condition (eligible meaning, among other rules, that its full text was open and that NHANES August 2021 to August 2023 could build its exposure, outcome, and population), 14 (35%; exact 95% confidence interval 21% to 52%, which treats the associations as independent) replicated in that cycle, meaning their estimate there has the published sign and a Benjamini-Hochberg-corrected p below 0.05, with each analysis computed as its paper's was. Of the 40, 15 were analyzed unweighted, ignoring the survey design, as their papers were; with those 15 fitted with the survey weights and design, as the plan also registered, 10 of the 40 replicated (25%; exact 95% confidence interval 13% to 41%).
- Published: At an unadjusted two-sided alpha of 0.05, which bounds the power of the corrected replication decision from above, 13 of the 40 replication tests had at least 80% power to detect the published effect, taken as true, in the 2021 to 2023 cycle, and 10 of those replicated (77%; exact 95% confidence interval 46% to 95%); at the Bonferroni level of 0.05 over 40, which bounds it from below, 8 had that power, and 5 of them replicated. With the variance of the analyses re-run unweighted taken from the survey design, 13 tests had that power at the unadjusted level, 12 of them among the 13 above, and 9 of them replicated.
- Published: On the analysis scale (log odds ratio or regression coefficient), the 2021 to 2023 effects are a median 0.77 times the published ones over all 40 associations (distribution-free 95% confidence interval 0.32 to 1.05) and 0.91 times (0.32 to 1.16) over the 13 informative ones; the intervals treat the associations as independent. The median is 0.53 over the 15 analyses re-run unweighted and 0.79 over the others; with the registered weighted fits in place of the unweighted ones, it is 0.85 (0.35 to 1.08).
- Its most important claim’s importance 39 out of 100: limited importance, under edition 3 of the rubric, being rated again
Why did United States heart-disease deaths increase between 2018 and 2024? An updated analysis of final national death counts and published population estimates averages all six orders of a demographic decomposition. Known-age deaths increase by 28135. Population size contributes 25981.4 deaths, age composition 26512.2, and age-specific rates -24358.5. Demographic contributions outweigh the negative rate contribution. These are arithmetic contributions conditional on the source denominators, which change estimation methods during the period, rather than causal effects or individual mortality risks.
- Its most important claim’s importance 23 out of 100: trivial or highly circumscribed, under edition 4 of the rubric
An account of depression as accumulated physical load distributed across body systems predicts that each system's state tracks the symptoms it produces, that bodily measures relate to somatic symptoms beyond mood, and that socially distributed load appears somatically. We tested these predictions in a registered analysis of 14722 adults in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), relating limitation in load-bearing tasks, slow bowel transit, body mass index (BMI), an allostatic load index and income to PHQ-9 depressive symptom items. Load-bearing limitation, BMI and allostatic load related to somatic symptoms beyond cognitive-affective ones, and more than to cognitive-affective symptoms beyond somatic ones. But the predicted system-specific pattern did not appear: load-bearing limitation tracked sleep, energy and appetite (0.2946) far more than slow transit did (0.0404). Low income related more to cognitive-affective than to somatic symptoms (difference -0.0996). Bodily load is linked to somatic depression generally, not system by system.
- Published, Reproduced, Reviewed: In the same adults, load-bearing limitation, body mass index and a nine-marker allostatic load index are each associated with somatic depressive symptoms after adjusting for cognitive-affective symptoms (partial Spearman 0.1916, 0.0558, 0.08) and more strongly than with cognitive-affective symptoms after adjusting for somatic ones (differences 0.0711, 0.0399, 0.0646; Holm-adjusted p 0.002, 0.016, 0.002), whereas slow bowel transit shows no such specificity (difference 0.0074, 95% CI -0.0209 to 0.0347).
- Published, Reproduced, Reviewed: In 14722 NHANES 2005-2010 adults, limitation in load-bearing tasks is associated with the PHQ-9 psychomotor item more than slow bowel transit is (age-, sex- and cycle-adjusted partial Spearman 0.2038 vs 0.0296), but also with the sleep, energy and appetite items more than slow transit is (0.2946 vs 0.0404; difference -0.2542, 95% CI -0.2762 to -0.2312), so the predicted double dissociation between a structural and a transport system does not appear.
- Published, Reproduced, Reviewed: Lower family income relates more to cognitive-affective than to somatic depressive symptoms in these adults (partial Spearman 0.1275 vs 0.0279; difference -0.0996, 95% CI -0.1299 to -0.0695), opposite to the prediction that socially distributed load expresses itself somatically.
- Its most important claim’s importance 14 out of 100: trivial or highly circumscribed, under edition 3 of the rubric, being rated again
How does transmission heterogeneity govern whether an emerging pathogen dies out or causes an epidemic? In negative binomial branching processes at reproduction number 2.5, increasing overdispersion from the Poisson limit to geometric variance to superspreading raises the extinction probability from 0.107355 to 0.4 to 0.860685. Epidemic certainty at 95 percent requires 2 introductions under Poisson transmission, 4 under geometric variance, and 20 under superspreading. Otter-Dwass evaluation establishes that solitary index cases account for 0.721943 extinction probability, or 83.88 percent of extinctions. Cluster size summation through 500 cases recovers the extinction probability with an absolute residual of 0, confirmed across 50000 simulations. Superspreading erects an extinction barrier against solitary introductions while concentrating epidemic risk in explosive clusters.
- Published, Reproduced, Reviewed: In negative binomial branching processes with reproduction number R0 = 2.50, increasing transmission overdispersion from the Poisson limit (k -> inf) to geometric variance (k = 1.00) to SARS-like superspreading (k = 0.10) increases the single-case extinction probability from 0.107355 to 0.400000 to 0.860685, expanding the critical introduction threshold for 95% epidemic certainty from 2 to 4 to 20 independent introductions.
- Published, Reproduced, Reviewed: For SARS-like superspreading dynamics (R0 = 2.50, k = 0.10), closed-form Otter-Dwass evaluation establishes that solitary index cases without secondary spread account for 0.721943 extinction probability (83.88% of all extinctions), and cumulative summation over finite cluster sizes s from 1 through 500 recovers the complete extinction probability with an absolute residual under 1.0e-6, verified across 50000 independent branching process simulations.
- Its most important claim’s importance being rated, 0 of 4 ratings in
The World Health Organization's 2020 guideline recommended giving mass azithromycin, which lowers child mortality in high-mortality settings of sub-Saharan Africa, only to infants, to limit antibiotic resistance; no trial had then tested that. Under a pre-registered plan we pooled every randomized trial by whom it treated. Treating all children under five lowered their mortality by 14.1% (CI 7.4% to 20.3%), consistently across trials. In the three trials that treated only infants, infant mortality was not detectably lower (rate ratio 0.971, CI 0.867 to 1.086), an interval that excludes the effect of treating all children. Infants had lower mortality when all children were treated, though a between-trial comparison of the two strategies fell short of significance, and giving azithromycin to individual infants at clinic visits showed no effect. The infant-only approach has not lowered mortality in any trial that tested it; treating all children under five has.
- Published, Reproduced: In 5 placebo-controlled comparisons from 3 cluster-randomized trials (MORDOR in Niger, Malawi and Tanzania; AVENIR in Niger; CHAT in Burkina Faso), twice-yearly mass azithromycin to every child 1 to 59 months old lowered mortality among children 1 to 59 months by 14.1% (rate ratio 0.859, 95% CI 0.797 to 0.926; Holm-corrected p = 0.015; I² = 0%), and the reduction held with a common-effect model (0.859, 0.813 to 0.908) and with any one comparison left out (largest p = 0.044).
- Published, Reproduced: Infant mortality was lower when all children 1 to 59 months were treated (rate ratio 0.823, 95% CI 0.707 to 0.958; 3 comparisons) than when only infants were (0.971), but the pre-registered meta-regression comparing the two strategies across trials did not establish a difference (ratio of rate ratios 1.187, 95% CI 0.974 to 1.447; p = 0.074; Holm-corrected p = 0.148); AVENIR's within-trial contrast of its all-children arm against its infant arm, estimated after registration from the two arms' printed mortality rates, was 0.830 (0.717 to 0.959).
- Published, Reproduced: Across the 8 mass-distribution comparisons against placebo, mortality fell more where the control arm's mortality rate was higher: the log rate ratio changed by -0.078 per unit of the log control rate (95% CI -0.144 to -0.013; p = 0.027), allowing for strategy, in a pre-specified descriptive analysis resting on few comparisons, one of whose rates comes from birth histories.